1. Substance
Delphi is an analytical method for predicting the future in areas where there are no projection options based on facts and figures. The method is most commonly used for technological forecasting.

The method was developed way back in the 1950’s by the American Rand Corporation for military planning.

Rand Corporation was originally part of Douglas Aircraft but is now a non-profit organisation conducting innovative research of a societal nature.

We have used the method in the 90's and 00's in areas such as mobile telephony which has enabled us to establish what worked well and what worked to a lesser extent. Subsequently, we have improved the method.

2. Benefits
As mentioned, the method provides a reasoned insight into the future development paths in areas where projection or similar fact-based calculations are not possible.

The method is most often used in technological, market or legislative leaps and bounds - or as now at the end of 2024, where there are many uncertainties concerning globalisation, AI, global political alliances, global warming, etc.

The method involves our customer in the three main phases of a forecasting process, providing deeper insight than by just receiving the end result.

In our experience from the completed projects, the accuracy of the method is quite good.

3. More Information
Explained in a few words, the Delphi technique can help an industry or a company that wishes to plan 3, 5 or, 7 years into the future.

Usually, you have few facts and a number of more or less loosely founded hypotheses about technological, stakeholder and market or regulatory leaps that trigger the need for making decisions.

After a preliminary study, we put together a "panel of experts" representing different aspects of the future to be structured and estimated. The experts typically have different professional backgrounds, but all have a relation to the theme that needs to be forecasted.

We have often used a gross panel of 25-30 people, divided into 4-6 professional areas of expertise such as legislation, technology, sales, production, distribution and research.

Participants give their opinions through successive rounds of interviews. A kind of iterative process based on three different sets of interviewing philosophies.